National price-predictability ranking
Rows are sorted tightest to widest by spreadRatio(), which divides P75 by P25 for each national Real Cost Index benchmark. The range bar uses one shared log scale so high-cost and low-cost trades can be compared in the same table.
| Trade | Median | Typical range | Spread | Predictability | Permits | P25-median-P75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pool Installer | $40,000 | $29,000-$60,000 | 2.1× | Clusters | 21,747 | P25medianP75 |
| Foundation Repair Contractor | $5,998 | $4,000-$9,681 | 2.4× | Clusters | 2,564 | P25medianP75 |
| Roofer | $9,500 | $5,000-$17,400 | 3.5× | Clusters | 74,465 | P25medianP75 |
| HVAC Technician | $5,650 | $2,800-$10,590 | 3.8× | Clusters | 330,437 | P25medianP75 |
| Gutter Installer | $10,000 | $4,653-$18,403 | 4.0× | Clusters | 411 | P25medianP75 |
| EV Charger Installer | $2,131 | $1,200-$5,000 | 4.2× | Varies | 877 | P25medianP75 |
| Siding Contractor | $7,500 | $3,850-$17,000 | 4.4× | Varies | 4,577 | P25medianP75 |
| Garage Door Company | $3,000 | $1,700-$7,978 | 4.7× | Varies | 56 | P25medianP75 |
| Gas Technician | $1,500 | $900-$4,300 | 4.8× | Varies | 30,057 | P25medianP75 |
| Heat Pump Installer | $6,500 | $2,500-$12,000 | 4.8× | Varies | 6,455 | P25medianP75 |
| Solar Installer | $11,000 | $4,100-$20,000 | 4.9× | Varies | 4,613 | P25medianP75 |
| Fence Contractor | $2,035 | $1,000-$5,000 | 5.0× | Varies | 14,913 | P25medianP75 |
| Tree Service | $5,000 | $2,000-$10,000 | 5.0× | Varies | 59 | P25medianP75 |
| Lead Abatement Contractor | $6,152 | $3,000-$15,000 | 5.0× | Varies | 655 | P25medianP75 |
| Plumber | $3,000 | $1,343-$7,000 | 5.2× | Varies | 225,182 | P25medianP75 |
| Landscaper | $3,000 | $1,500-$7,913 | 5.3× | Varies | 5,635 | P25medianP75 |
| Insulation Contractor | $7,550 | $3,465-$20,404 | 5.9× | Varies | 570 | P25medianP75 |
| Deck Builder | $8,000 | $3,053-$19,199 | 6.3× | Varies | 5,640 | P25medianP75 |
| Window & Door Installer | $5,883 | $2,147-$15,000 | 7.0× | Varies | 13,469 | P25medianP75 |
| Electrician | $2,700 | $1,000-$8,800 | 8.8× | Wide — get quotes | 486,961 | P25medianP75 |
| Fire Protection Contractor | $5,787 | $2,000-$20,000 | 10.0× | Wide — get quotes | 11,080 | P25medianP75 |
| Water/Fire/Mold Restoration | $14,107 | $4,500-$50,000 | 11.1× | Wide — get quotes | 1,595 | P25medianP75 |
| Water Well Contractor | $7,750 | $2,150-$24,250 | 11.3× | Wide — get quotes | 72 | P25medianP75 |
| Concrete Contractor | $9,885 | $3,200-$37,500 | 11.7× | Wide — get quotes | 1,183 | P25medianP75 |
| General Contractor | $21,500 | $5,200-$127,365 | 24.5× | Wide — get quotes | 1,145,131 | P25medianP75 |
How we measured it
For each national benchmark, spread means the 75th-percentile declared value divided by the 25th-percentile declared value. A low ratio means the middle half of filed jobs cluster tightly; a high ratio means the middle half spans a much larger band.
This is intentionally a quote-predictability signal, not a pure overcharging measure. Some trades have broad permit categories: a general-contractor filing can cover a small deck, a room addition, or a full rebuild. That job-size heterogeneity widens the spread even when contractors are pricing honestly.
Median + interquartile (P25–P75) declared construction value on real public building permits. Declared valuations are a self-reported public-record proxy for project cost and can run below the out-the-door price; medians and a 30-permit minimum keep each benchmark honest.
- This study reads only the live Real Cost Index through
loadPermitCostIndex(). - Published rows use national-scope benchmarks and require a valid positive P25 and P75 before a spread ratio is shown.
- Every published benchmark clears the Real Cost Index minimum of 30 usable public permits.
Use the underlying data
Cite ProFix Directory (2026), Which Home Projects Have the Most Predictable Prices?. Published 2026-06-17; data snapshot 2026-06-19. Open data is available under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.